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La baloune Linux se dégonfle et Dagenais se tait.

Il n'y a pas que Torvalds et moi qui soient des prophètes de malheur.
Les marchés financiers sont en train de se rendre compte que, tel que
prévu, les profits sont loin, très loin d'être au rendez-vous.


(...)

Their debuts (Red Hat, VA Linux, Cobalt Networks, and Andover.net were
set against a backdrop of euphoria that Linux was about to turn the
tables of the computing world and bury Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT). 

So far, at least, that hasn't happened. Despite its entanglements with
federal regulators, Microsoft is still above ground in Redmond,
Washington. Even though Bill Gates has stepped down from the CEO role,
the company he founded is still making plenty of money, and its
operating system and programs are on more computers than anyone
else's. Microsoft's growth has slowed a bit, but it would be
presumptuous to credit much of this stagnation to Linux.

All four of the recently public Linux contenders have meager revenues
and large losses. Some are growing rapidly on a percentage basis, but
not nearly fast enough to justify their post-market highs on Nasdaq. 

STEEP RISE, DEEP FALL
VA Linux Systems, which sells Linux servers, experienced the biggest
first-day rise in IPO history, jumping in December from $30 to $320 a
share. VA has now returned to earth and is trading at around $111. But
VA's current valuation of about 100 times annual revenues is still
steep for a hardware company that lost $11.6 million in its recent
quarter. By comparison, Dell Computer (Nasdaq: DELL), the
fastest-growing PC hardware vendor in history, trades at about five
times revenues. 

Cobalt Networks (Nasdaq: COBT), a maker of Linux "server appliances"
that make it easier to upgrade networks of servers, scorched to a high
of $172 after its November offering. Cobalt lost $8.6 million on $9
million revenues in its recent quarter. The stock is now languishing
at a slightly more realistic $87, or around 75 times sales.

Red Hat, a vendor of shrink-wrapped Linux software for consumers, went
public in August. It rocketed to a split-adjusted high of $151 --
$302, presplit -- in December. By February, Red Hat needed more money
and had a follow-on offering of 4 million shares at $95 a share,
raising another $380 million. That flood of new shares combined with
another 1.2 million shares registered by company insiders sent the
availability of the stock surging past demand. Now, despite a frothy
market, this freshly diluted equity trades at around $68.

Software companies generally trade at much higher sales multiples than
hardware companies because they have higher gross profit margins. But
Red Hat takes this to an extreme. Despite the downslide, it is still
trading at nearly 300 times revenues -- not bad for a company that
lost $3.6 million on a mere $5.4 million sales in its recent quarter.
Meanwhile, Microsoft, which had $2.3 billion earnings in its recent
quarter, trades at a paltry 23 times revenues.

Andover.net, a "community" site for Linux developers to share their
code and ideas, went public in December and shot to a high of $90. In
its recent quarter, the company lost $15.7 million on $2.1 million
revenues. The stock now appears to be stabilizing in the $40 range.

http://www.redherring.com/ipo/2000/0310/ipo-critic031000.html?id=yahoo


-------

If hype is measured by short-term stock performance, then the thrill
is gone for Linux.

While the NASDAQ index broke records during the past three months,
climbing 40 percent to hit 5,000, the major Linux stocks -- Red Hat
Inc. (Nasdaq:RHAT - news), Corel Corp. (Nasdaq:CORL - news), VA Linux
Systems Inc. and Cobalt Networks Inc. (Nasdaq:COBT - news) -- have
lost between 40 percent and 60 percent of their value.

(...)

What bears watching is how Linux partners handle the cooling-off
period. Major enterprise vendors such as IBM and Dell Computer Corp.
(Nasdaq:DELL - news) have bear-hugged Linux and launched major
initiatives around the platform. If such large vendors believe they
got caught up in the hype, they could easily recoil and scale down
investment, further affecting Linux penetration in the enterprise.

“We put a lot of faith in what our supplier [IBM] recommends,” said
Jeff Winter, IT manager at American Ref-Fuel Co., of Houston. “I
hadn't given Linux much thought until IBM talked about it. And we
still may not do it.”

Experts contend that Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq:MSFT - news) is probably
a factor in both the rise and the recent slide of Linux stocks.
“Anti-Microsoft fervor probably lifted some of those stocks way up,”
Alper said. “And then Windows 2000 was launched, and the reality sets
in that it will be a major platform.”

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/zd/20000310/tc/20000311764.html

--------

Note: Caldera fait son IPO le 17 mars: 5 millions d'actions @ 8-10$. À
mon avis, ce sera encore tout bonbon... pour ceux qui peuvent mettre
la main dessus, mais il faudra vendre vite...

------

Évidemment, d'apprendre tout ça me fait le plus grand plaisir, moi qui
ai été déclaré ennemi juré de Linux, moi qui, comme un très cher grand
ami chez CAM, déclare à qui veut l'entendre «C'est merveilleux M$, le
même dictionnaire fonctionne dans toutes les applications!»

Allez! Suivez Rousselle, Roussel & Cie, c'est là qu'est le futur de
Linux! C'est pas des trolls, ils connaissent Dagenais, et Dagenais ne
dit pas un mot de l'usage qu'on fait de son nom.

GP
--
La Masse Critique
http://altern.org/gipe
Rencontrez Néfertiti, Einstein, Tocqueville, etc.